Nonconsensus

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The Housing Market Is Starting to Crack
For years the housing market has almost levitated despite drags from high rates and high prices thanks to limited supply and other assets financing…
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Bob Elliott
13
Global Beneficiaries Of Mideast Peace
The likely resolution of the Mideast conflict and the relief in the oil market that has come with it most benefits economies outside the US, taking away…
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Bob Elliott
7
A Broad Slowdown In US Hard Data
In recent weeks hard data across nearly every sector of the US economy has shown slowing, suggesting a broad-based weakness that is far from priced into…
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Bob Elliott
6
Muted Initial Market Reaction To US Strike on Iran
While markets are pretty sanguine about the impact of the US strikes on Iran, its a another good reminder that most investors are totally unprepared for…
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Bob Elliott
1
The Coming Season Of Disappointment
Markets haven't moved much lately despite the noise of daily volatility even as conditions have clearly weakened. With pricing still penciling out a…
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Bob Elliott
The Fed Will Do Nothing Longer Than Most Expect
The Fed decides based on the data it sees. With UE low and stable and inflation still elevated, holding policy steady is the right choice. Tariff & ME…
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Bob Elliott
4
Fading Household Demand Threatens US Growth
Labor market softening looks to be flowing through to a deceleration in household demand in recent months. Stock and bond markets are far from pricing…
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Bob Elliott
2
Not Your Father's Oil Shock
The sensitivity of the US to oil shocks has come down a lot as the US has shifted to a net oil exporter and reduced the share of spending on oil. It'd…
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Bob Elliott
Most Investors Are Totally Unprepared for War
For decades savers went all in on 60/40, but underlying that allocation was a huge bet on disinflationary growth and peace. Investors today are seeing…
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Bob Elliott
The UK's Income-Driven Expansion Is At A Turning Point
The UK expansion lasted far longer than most expected, but rapidly weakening labor markets are undermining continued growth. Monetary policy…
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Bob Elliott
The Tariff-Driven Inflation Rise Is Here
Scanning across a range of measures shows a clear pickup in price growth in recent months, while markets show little concern. If tariffs stick around…
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Bob Elliott
4
$7tln of Investment Incoming? Don't Hold Your Breath.
While headlines imply the admin secured huge new investments from companies and foreign countries that will drive big growth numbers, hopes for an…
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Bob Elliott
6
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