Focus On Macro Process, Not Views
I’ve spent the last 20 years immersed in the macro economy and financial markets. I’ve worked with the best at their best, and generated billions in alpha. Creating consistent edge requires a repeatable process to find opportunities when future macro dynamics are likely to diverge from what is priced into markets.
There is no textbook to learn how to reliably generate nonconensus views, but every veteran macro trader has taken a similar journey: developing their unique edge through years of everyday observation, analysis, trades, mistakes, revision and learning.
For me the process starts the same way every day: check the markets to see how millions of investors’ views on the global economy are incrementally changing. Then check the economic data and news looking for incremental updates driving the shifts on the screen. Inevitably that leads to observations and questions about what the markets may be missing - and with it, the genesis of trading opportunities.
After years of penning daily research notes at the world’s biggest hedge fund, I turn to writing as my way of working through those questions. Putting thoughts on (digital) paper not only forces more rigorous thinking, but it also is a leveraged way to get feedback on the ideas.
For the last couple years I have made this process open to everyone across a bunch of different platforms, with my too-long Twitter threads becoming must-reads among investors and advisors. The open dialogue has both productively challenged my thinking, but also come with many of the downsides of the open internet.
Nonconsensus will look similar to the previous work, but a little less constrained by 280 characters and focused on more productive engagement for a community of involved readers.
My hope is that subscribers looking over my shoulder each day will continue to find useful perspectives on the markets and economy and a few trading opportunities along the way. More important is that you see the process with all its warts - right, wrong, conflicting and uncertain at times - as a way to develop your own process and edge as a macro investor yourself.
What You Can Expect As A Paid Sub
Folks who have been following my content for some time will be familiar with the daily macro- related threads and tweets. Expect more of the same, but with the opportunity for deeper work.
● Weekday “threads” on macro topics focused on finding nonconsensus opportunities across global markets with active engagement on comments and questions for every post.
● Full archive access if you are looking for past work on topics.
● Realtime insight into major macro themes driving markets (e.g. “Party On, Garth” or “Curb Your Enthusiasm”) paired with concrete asset market positions to express those themes.
● Live access to monthly macro webinars to get your questions answered.
● First looks into other content including new longer-format research pieces, book chapters and much more to come.
● Active engagement on comments and questions on posts.
The benefit of focusing my attention on a smaller group of folks means creating a more engaged community. So part of what you will get out of the paid subscription will depend on your own engagement with the questions. Looking forward to getting to know everyone!
For Our Free Subs
I recognize that many folks aren’t in a position to pay for premium content, but still can benefit from seeing first hand the process. For you all I plan to still have some access to the ongoing thinking (along with keeping up other content on other platforms like walk and talk videos, media clips and interesting charts).
Each week a selected “Best Of” thread - a look at some of the more impactful research that is normally published on a weekday cadence with a delay.
Occasional real time posts, particularly during more challenging macro environments.
All Good Things…
Putting my flagship daily content behind a paywall is a choice that I’m not taking lightly.
For years I have really appreciated much of the engagement across the various platforms I have published on, but it also has come with its costs. I look forward to building a community with a smaller engaged group of readers, and over time deepen the research offerings available. It’s by no means the end of the journey, but a new exciting beginning.
And A Last Reminder To Do Your Own Research
The information provided in this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. The views expressed are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice. The author may hold positions in the securities or strategies discussed that are consistent with the views expressed. Readers should not rely solely on this information in making any investment decision. All investments involve risk, and you should do your own research or consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
