Scanning across a range of measures shows a clear pickup in price growth in recent months, while markets show little concern. If tariffs stick around, growth will disappoint current expectations.
Strong thread. This triangulation across ISM, NFIB, real-time price trackers (like Cavallo/Truflation), and CPI is a compelling case that inflationary pressure is building under the surface—even as headline measures lag. Well done.
Appreciate it! Officially measured inflation is just one lens, and its useful to see the full picture from many data sources to help think through what is the most likely "truth" of the stat. In this case its valuable since the CPI/PPI reports have been very low vs. expectations and other data, suggesting they are more likely to rebound ahead.
Strong thread. This triangulation across ISM, NFIB, real-time price trackers (like Cavallo/Truflation), and CPI is a compelling case that inflationary pressure is building under the surface—even as headline measures lag. Well done.
Appreciate it! Officially measured inflation is just one lens, and its useful to see the full picture from many data sources to help think through what is the most likely "truth" of the stat. In this case its valuable since the CPI/PPI reports have been very low vs. expectations and other data, suggesting they are more likely to rebound ahead.
Bring back the morning walk/chat videos; they're great!
Thanks! They are available each day on all the major platforms - TT, YT, LinkedIn, and Twitter.