False Hopes For a 1H26 Stimulus Boom

Many bulls hawk the narrative of a refund-driven spending surge in early ’26, but the math doesn’t add up. Tax refunds skew to high earners while ACA and SNAP cuts squeeze the poor.

As we enter the new year many bulls are penciling out an expected stimulus-driven surge in spending to kick off the year driven by a combination of higher expected refunds and slightly higher tax bra…