Nonconsensus

Nonconsensus

Counting Barrels

The current disruption leaves a roughly 10mln bbl/d gap in supply. Drawing down public reserves will help, but it’s a stop gap that will swiftly run out if the conflict persists beyond a few months.

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Bob Elliott
Mar 11, 2026
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Some of my first work as a macro analyst many years ago was counting the barrels of the Canadian oil sands. I always liked the commodity markets because they seemed so concrete. Count the projected…

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